Systems thinkers understand that system inputs do not operate in isolation but influence each other in complex ways. This article looks at the interlocking "polycrisis," the term used by Columbia University economic historian Adam Tooze, posed by changes in climate, population shifts, the rise of authoritarian politics, instability in global finance, and international conflict: www.nytimes.com/2022/11/13/opinion/coronavirus-ukraine-climate-inflation.html.

Electric vehicles are dependent on a variety of minerals. This article from The Wall Street Journal includes maps that show where cobalt and manganese, as well as lithium and nickel, are mined and refined: www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicles-scarce-parts-supply-chain-11668206037

Yesterday, the world population hit 8 billion according to United Nations estimates. Globally, the population is expected to climb to about 10.4 billion around the turn of the century and then taper off. But these new 2.4 billion people will not be evenly distributed around the planet. This article highlights where there are expected to be concentrated population booms, where the population is expected to decline, where the population is aging rapidly, and what it all means: www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/world-population-8-billion/

The series of geo-graphics in this article from The New York Times show how international trade with Russia has changed since February: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/30/business/economy/russia-trade-ukraine-war.html

Yes, climate change is making some natural disasters worse, but is it also becoming a tidy way of letting governments off the hook for bad planning?  The recent floods in Pakistan are a case in point. An international team of researchers analyzed the flooding in Pakistan and found that rainfall in the southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan was "about 75% more intense than it would have been had the climate not warmed by 1.2C." But the report also found "The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability." Although solving climate change will remain out of the purview of any single country, that does not mean governments do not need to address in-country zoning, infrastructure, economic and political issues to mitigate the impacts of climate change. www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-likely-increased-extreme-monsoon-rainfall-flooding-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-pakistan/

This topological map from Visual Capitalist shows the number and percentage of each country's population deemed to be at high risk from once-in-a-century flooding, like the floods that inundated more than one-third of Pakistan earlier this fall, killing more than 1,700 people, destroying buildings and crops, and creating lasting crises in food security, education, and waterborne disease. www.visualcapitalist.com/countries-highest-flood-risk/ 

Cyprus has long been an offshore home for Russian assets.  Now, Cyprus is becoming a home for Russians themselves. Because of its membership in the EU and its liberal visa and immigration policies, Cyprus is seeing a major influx of Russian tech workers, in particular. According to some who left Russia, entire IT industries, like game design, have left Russia since February, despite the Russian government's attempts to keep IT workers in the country with discounted mortgages and military deferrals. Russians are not the only ones arriving in Cyprus, though; at least 16,000 Ukrainians have also arrived in Cyprus since February, contributing to domestic political tensions in Cyprus, which is supporting EU sanctions on Russia despite its long reliance on Russian money and Russian tourism. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/23/cyprus-russian-expat-tech-workers/

NASA instrumentation aboard the International Space Station has pinpointed more than 50 methane super-emitters since it was installed in July, including an oilfield in New Mexico, a waste-processing complex in Iran, and massive, previously unidentified plumes associated with oil and gas facilities in Turkmenistan.  The instrumentation will be in service for a year and will be tracking airborne dust to help scientists model the potential for airborne dust in different parts of the world "to trap or deflect heat from the sun, thus contributing to warming or cooling of the planet."  Identifying methane sources from space, including those in locations that would otherwise be difficult to monitor, was an unexpected side benefit.  www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/nasa-instrument-detects-dozens-methane-super-emitters-space-2022-10-26/

University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape returned to the national security podcast "Intelligence Matters" last week to provide an update on his group's detailed research on political violence in the U.S. post-Jan. 6.  This site includes highlights of his remarks and a link to the 40-minute podcast: www.cbsnews.com/news/rising-political-violence-in-america-robert-pape-intelligence-matters/

Natural gas prices are 8x higher than normal in Europe, and most countries are desperate to obtain and store enough natural gas to get them through the winter, but although liquified natural gas (LNG) deliveries are arriving, the capacity to regasify the LNG is maxed out. This map from Reuters shows more than 35 LNG ships waiting in the Atlantic and Mediterranean to offload their cargo at Spanish LNG terminals: graphics.reuters.com/EUROPE-ENERGY/LNG/dwvkroxdgpm/Congestion%20at%20Spain%20LNG%20Terminals.jpg  (Map from www.reuters.com/business/energy/dozens-lng-laden-ships-queue-off-europes-coasts-unable-unload-2022-10-17/.)

COVID cut global life expectancy, but the impact even among relatively affluent countries was highly uneven. Researchers studied life expectancy in 29 countries (mostly European plus the U.S. and Chile) between 2019 and 2021.  In one -- Norway -- life expectancy continued to edge upwards, as had been the long-term trend in all of the countries studied, but in each of the 28 other countries, life expectancy fell by months to years. Between 2020 and 2021, most Western European countries stopped or even reversed the decline in life expectancy, but in the U.S., Chile, and Eastern European countries, life expectancy continued to decline through 2020-2021. U.S. life expectancy declined 2.75 years through the study period, second only to Bulgaria, which saw a decline of 3.5 years. (Study summary at www.statista.com/chart/28487/life-expectancy-change-selected-countries/ includes the link to the Nature Human Behavior article.)

The Darién Gap is the southernmost section of Panama that is part Panamanian rainforest and national park, part indigenous land, and part ungoverned space in which a variety of gangs and smugglers have long held sway. The "gap" refers to a gap in the Pan-American Highway: there is no road through the Darién Gap to connect Panama with Colombia. Over the last few years, the Darién Gap has become a route for Venezuelan and other migrants heading to the U.S. (many of whom fly into Ecuador from around the world to take advantage of Ecuador's liberal visa policy). This article from The New York Times chronicles the hazards of the Darién Gap: www.nytimes.com/2022/10/07/world/americas/venezuelan-migrants-us-border.html

Uganda is experiencing an outbreak of Ebola in the districts shown in brown on this map (from Forbes), all of which are northwest of the capital of Kampala, on the shores of Lake Victoria. Unlike previous Ebola outbreaks, the current outbreak in Uganda is caused by a strain for which there is no vaccine, no effective antiviral treatment, and no rapid test. imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/634062ae9ae26158286461d8/960x0.jpg

Over the last two decades, China has built a vast ocean fishing fleet that has depleted China's own fishing stocks and now spends most of its time in and near the territorial waters of other countries. This recent article from The New York Times includes a series of maps profiling the journeys of a Chinese-owned refrigerated cargo ship that offloads catches from fishing vessels in South American waters, including in waters adjacent to the protected marine sanctuary of the Galapagos Islands: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/26/world/asia/china-fishing-south-america.html

Geography journalist Tim Marshall takes a look at the emerging naval rivalry between India and China in this article from Geographical (UK): geographical.co.uk/geopolitics/indias-ocean-rivalry-with-china?

According to a recent survey, 43% of Americans polled, including more than half of Republicans polled, believe a civil war is likely in the United States within the next 10 years. www.statista.com/chart/28200/is-a-us-civil-war-likely/

Africa, which produces about 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, is expected to be hard hit by climate change. This map, from Statista, shows country-by-country assessments of Africa's anticipated resilience to climate change, based on a combination of forecasts vis-a-vis climate impact, local livelihoods, and governmental capacity to respond. www.statista.com/chart/28136/index-scores-for-climate-resilience-of-african-countries/

An estimated 70,000 people (out of a population of 10.7 million) took to the streets of Prague last weekend to protest energy prices. The protest was organized by an assortment of right-wing and left-wing parties; signs and speakers at the protest in Wenceslas Square opposed Czechia's participation in NATO and in the European Union and resettlement of Ukrainian refugees. To date, the Czech government of Prime Minister Petr Fiala has been among the most active voices supporting the EU's opposition to Russia's war in Ukraine, but Russia is/was Czechia's main energy supplier, accounting for 98% of its natural gas supplies and about half its oil. Russia's decision to shut down fuel exports to the EU is clearly being done with exactly this sort of scenario in mind. Italy's ruling coalition was arguably the first EU/NATO government to fall due to surging energy prices.  Could Saturday's large protest in Prague be a sign that Czechia's might be next?  www.reuters.com/world/europe/tens-thousands-protest-prague-against-czech-government-eu-nato-2022-09-03

This has been China's hottest, driest summer since record keeping began 61 years ago, and the impact on the Yangtze River has been severe, with tributaries dried up and water flow in the main branch running 50% below normal. The Yangtze is the longest river in the world that runs through only one country, and five of China's megacities -- cities with a population of at least 10 million -- are in the Yangtze River basin.  The Yangtze is not only a key source of water for drinking and irrigation, it is also a major source of hydroelectric power. In Sichuan Province, which gets 80% of its electricity from hydropower, factories have been shut recently to save power for home air conditioning. The next few days may also determine the impact on China's main rice crop. www.euronews.com/2022/08/21/china-declares-first-ever-drought-emergency-amid-intense-heatwave

The summer's drought and war have focused attention on agricultural vulnerabilities and food insecurity. This article from The New York Times profiles the work of crop scientists who are tinkering with plant genomes to improve harvests: www.nytimes.com/2022/08/18/climate/gmo-food-soybean-photosynthesis.html

Hal Brands, professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and former Special Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Strategic Planning and lead writer for the Commission on the National Defense Strategy for the United States, released an important and somewhat contrarian new book this week arguing that China is likely to try to invade Taiwan within the next five years. Danger Zone lays out the case that far from being a rising power, China is a peaking power due to the convergence of a variety of serious demographic, economic, and geopolitical constraints, a situation that tends to make countries more reckless. "When you think about revisionist powers - so that's just a fancy political science word for countries that want to change the way the world works; they're dissatisfied with the existing order. They tend to become most aggressive, most rash, not when they are very confident about the future, when they think that things will be better a decade from now than they are now, but when they worry that their window to change the system is closing. That, either because their economy has stalled or they're becoming encircled by their enemies, or sometimes both, that they have a closing window of opportunity to achieve their objectives. And when that is the case, they become more prone to use coercion, to use violence, to use force to get what they want while they can still grab it. That's been the case historically in a variety of instances, from ancient times up to the 20th century. And it's the trap that we worry that China may be falling into today. ... [A] lot of the tailwinds that propelled China to where it is today have now become headwinds. Assets have become liabilities, so to speak." The book makes the argument for China's status as a peaking power and details what the U.S. and its allies can do, now, to head off possible Chinese aggression in the Pacific. (Quote from Brands' interview with the "Intelligence Matters" podcast: www.cbsnews.com/news/hal-brands-on-potential-of-future-conflict-with-china-intelligence-matters/.)

The ocean's fish are on the move in response to climate change. What happens when "your" fish move to someone else's territorial waters? This article from The Independent (UK) looks at new research about fish movement and the impact these movements may have on international fishing agreements. www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/fish-stocks-climate-crisis-disputes-b1996157.html

Europe's record-shattering heat has been in the news, but "Qatar is heating faster than almost anywhere else on the planet, the consequence of being a peninsula surrounded by overheating seas in one of the hottest corners of the world." This article from Geographical (UK) looks at what climate change means for Qatar and how the country is responding: geographical.co.uk/climate-change/climate-and-qatar?

This article from The Wall Street Journal considers what happens when climate change meets the bond market, which in the U.S. alone currently amounts to $4 trillion in municipal bonds plus another $12 trillion in mortgage-backed bonds.

"For centuries, bond investing has boiled down to forecasting two things: which way interest rates are going to move and how likely a borrower is to repay its debts. A handful of startups are betting that to predict repayments in the future, bond analysts will need better data on something they’ve long overlooked—climate risk. The new firms are competing to design algorithms that can predict the likelihood of natural disasters hitting specific towns, industrial parks, even individual buildings, and how much damage they could do. That could become more relevant if wildfires, floods, storms and drought strike more frequently and with greater severity, creating potential new losses for holders of municipal, corporate and mortgage-backed debt. ... 'Eventually this chicken is going to come home to roost,' says the firm’s [risQ's] 34-year-old Chief Executive Evan Kodra.... Paradise, Calif., which was ravaged by the 2018 Camp Fire, disclosed in a March regulatory filing that one of its agencies may default on a $4.8 million bond next year. The town received $219 million from a settlement in 2020 but said it plans to use those funds to rebuild infrastructure instead. ... Over and over, risQ’s model showed that bond markets weren’t discriminating between municipalities with very different climate risk. A school district near California’s wine country has five times the wildfire property-damage risk of a school district a few hours north of Sacramento, for example, but their bonds trade at identical yields, according to risQ research." 
www.wsj.com/articles/high-tech-weathermen-forecast-climate-risks-for-bond-markets-11657461236