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For years, scientists and epidemiologists have warned policy makers and the public that it is only a matter of time before a lethal influenza strain capable of rapid human-to-human transmission re-emerges. Then COVID popped up as a test run. The response? In the U.S., backlash against COVID restrictions is now resulting in a hobbling of public health officials and their budgets, reducing communities' abilities to respond to the next pandemic.
"When the next pandemic sweeps the United States, health officials in Ohio won’t be able to shutter businesses or schools, even if they become epicenters of outbreaks. Nor will they be empowered to force Ohioans who have been exposed to go into quarantine. State officials in North Dakota are barred from directing people to wear masks to slow the spread. Not even the president can force federal agencies to issue vaccination or testing mandates to thwart its march. ... At least 30 states, nearly all led by Republican legislatures, have passed laws since 2020 that limit public health authority, according to a Washington Post analysis of laws collected by Kaiser Health News and the Associated Press as well as the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials and the Center for Public Health Law Research at Temple University. Health officials and governors in more than half the country are now restricted from issuing mask mandates, ordering school closures and imposing other protective measures or must seek permission from their state legislatures before renewing emergency orders, the analysis showed. The movement to curtail public health powers successfully tapped into a populist rejection of pandemic measures following widespread anger and confusion over the government response to covid. Grass-roots-backed candidates ran for county commissions and local health boards on the platform of dismantling health departments’ authority. Republican legislators and attorneys general, religious liberty groups and the legal arms of libertarian think tanks filed lawsuits and wrote new laws modeled after legislation promoted by groups such as the American Legislative Exchange Council, a conservative, corporate-backed influence in statehouses across the country. ... The result, public health experts warn, is a battered patchwork system that makes it harder for leaders to protect the country from infectious diseases that cross red and blue state borders. 'One day we’re going to have a really bad global crisis and a pandemic far worse than covid, and we’ll look to the government to protect us, but it’ll have its hands behind its back and a blindfold on,' said Lawrence Gostin, director of Georgetown University’s O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law. 'We’ll die with our rights on — we want liberty but we don’t want protection.'" www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/03/08/covid-public-health-backlash/
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Economists from Moody's Analytics, part of the sister company of the Moody's bond rating agency, recently released a series of economic forecasts based on possible U.S. debt ceiling outcomes:
"The debt limit was hit on January 19, and the Treasury is now using “extraordinary measures” to come up with the additional cash needed to pay its bills. Based on our assessment of the government’s outlays and receipts in coming weeks, those measures seem likely to be exhausted by mid-August. To be more precise, the X-date appears to be August 18. That is a few days after the Treasury will have made a scheduled interest payment to Treasury bondholders. Investors in short-term Treasury securities are coalescing around a similar X-date, demanding higher yields on securities that mature just after the date given worries that a debt limit breach may occur. "Unless the debt limit is increased, suspended, or done away with by then, someone will not get paid in a timely way. The U.S. government will default on its obligations. In this analysis, a default occurs when the Treasury fails to make good on any of its obligations in full or on time, regardless of whether it is to bondholders, Social Security beneficiaries, defense contractors, or others. "The original intent of the debt limit was to force lawmakers to be fiscally disciplined—to raise taxes or restrain government spending sufficiently to keep the government’s deficits in check and its debt load low and stable. It has failed at this. Instead, the debt limit has become highly disruptive to the fiscal process, resulting in unproductive political brinkmanship that has unnerved financial markets, businesses and households. "The current battle over the debt limit looks to be even more vexed than in times past. Odds that lawmakers are unable to resolve their differences and avoid a breach of the debt limit appear meaningfully greater than zero." The paper then lays out five scenarios with associated risks and economic impacts: Clean Debt Limit Increase, Constitutional Crisis, Payment Prioritization, House Republican Plan, and Prolonged Breach. www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2023/going-down-the-debt-limit-rabbit-hole.pdf The statistics in this article from The New York Times Magazine are rather stunning, as is its conclusion about the cause of Britain's precipitous decline: "In December, as many as 500 patients per week were dying in Britain because of E.R. waits, according to the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, a figure rivaling (and perhaps surpassing) the death toll from Covid-19. ... By the end of next year, the average British family will be less well off than the average Slovenian one, according to a recent analysis by John Burn-Murdoch at The Financial Times; by the end of this decade, the average British family will have a lower standard of living than the average Polish one." www.nytimes.com/2023/01/25/opinion/uk-economic-decline-nhs.html
The latest Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index shows country-by-country data on trends in perceived government corruption: www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022
Is it possible to retain a liberal democracy* without an independent judiciary? That's the question behind huge protests in Israel over the last two weeks. Earlier this week, for example, an estimated 100,000 protestors took to the streets in Jerusalem to demonstrate against the government's plan to allow the legislature to void decisions of the country's supreme court. But for other Israelis, the judiciary is seen as subverting the will of the voters by overturning laws passed by the legislature. (*In political science, a "liberal" democracy is one that respects civil liberties, not one that espouses progressive values.) www.nytimes.com/2023/02/13/world/middleeast/israel-judicial-protests-netanyahu.html
Chicago is hoping to further its ambitions of becoming a tech hub by attracting tech workers laid off by firms in Silicon Valley and elsewhere to the Windy City. Specifically, Chicago is trying to make itself a destination for holders of H-1B visas. H-1B visas, which are reserved for in-demand occupations, require employer sponsorship; when holders of H-1B visas are laid off, they have only 60 days to find a new employer willing to sponsor their visa or they must leave the country. (Roughly 40% of software engineers working in the U.S. were born outside the country.) A consortium of Chicago employers and civic groups is trying to target laid off H-1B visa holders to fill job openings, keep tech talent in the U.S., and promote Chicago as a destination for top tech talent. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-25/chicago-seeks-to-lure-foreign-workers-laid-off-by-tech-giants
As this article from Foreign Policy makes clear, FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried were not based in the Bahamas just because of the pleasant weather. Instead, the Bahamas was chosen for its crypto-friendly regulatory framework, the most recent banking initiative of an island nation that has frequently found ways to take advantage of interstices in the global economy. foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/15/the-hidden-history-of-the-worlds-top-offshore-cryptocurrency-tourist-trap
When can a promise be changed in the face of altered circumstances? That is the crux of the issue behind major strikes in France this week over the government's proposal to raise the retirement age by 2 years, from 62 to 64, in 2030. According to Stanford's Center for Longevity, half of today's 5-year-olds can expect to live to age 100 -- and, according to the Center for Longevity, we are not ready. Economic impacts are among the most obvious, from personal savings to growth-centric economic models to pension policies. For example, when the forerunner of France's pension system was established in the 1940s, life expectancy in France was less than 60; today French life expectancy is 82, and government spending on pensions comes to slightly more than 14% of GDP. But our attitudes towards aging, purpose, caregiving, the elderly, promise-keeping, even longevity itself may all be revisited in the years ahead.
This graphic from Statista, based on data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, shows the changing composition of undocumented migrants apprehended at the southern U.S. border over the last 20+ years, from largely Mexican citizens to largely people from countries other than Mexico. Over the last year, more than two-thirds of the non-Mexican migrants were NOT from Central America. www.statista.com/chart/20326/mexicans-non-mexcians-apprehended-at-southern-us-border
Not all global issues or leadership choices are political. Many are economic. This podcast from Foreign Policy's economics columnist highlights global economic issues to keep an eye on in 2023: foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/ones-and-tooze/three-economic-stories-to-watch-in-2023/
This article from Foreign Policy profiles 14 elections to watch in 2023, from Turkey and Nigeria to Argentina and Finland: foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/01/top-global-elections-2023-nigeria-thailand-turkey-pakistan-argentina-poland-bangladesh
For more than 7 years, Egypt has been planning and building a new capital city 40 miles east of Cairo. New Administrative Capital, as the city is called, is not yet complete, but civil servants are being asked to move to the new capital beginning this month, in the hope that other Egyptians will follow: www.wsj.com/articles/egypt-is-spending-billions-on-a-new-capital-that-egyptians-may-not-visit-11671838772
For those looking to understand the historical context of Russian president Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, there are two new books that may be of particular interest:
What is a "dunkelflaute" and why does it matter? Without access to Russian gas, European consumers are at the mercy of Mother Nature: specifically, a particularly cold winter this year will spell trouble for energy supplies for the next 12 months and possibly beyond. A dunkelflaute is a German word that refers to cloudy, cold, windless weather -- the kind that increases heating demands while shutting down solar and wind production. The UK, for example, experienced a multi-day dunkelflaute earlier this month, with snow falling in London and wind energy dropping from 20% of the UK's electricity mix to 4%. qz.com/can-europe-survive-the-dreaded-dunkelflaute-1849886529
The Middle East Institute, a nonpartisan think tank specializing in issues related to the greater Middle East, presents its recommendations for the top 10 books published in the last year related to the Middle East: www.mei.edu/blog/10-books-expand-your-knowledge-middle-east
The Cook Islands are a self-governing group of islands in the South Pacific (shown in red on this map). Formerly considered part of New Zealand, the islands have been in "free association" with New Zealand since 1965 and conduct their own foreign and defense policy. In September, the Biden administration recognized the Cook Islands as sovereign states, renewing the islands' quest to be the newest member of the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund. tinyurl.com/ywp3hwsm
In September, a European human rights organization published a report identifying dozens of informal "police stations" operated by the Chinese government in major cities around the world, monitoring Chinese nationals and their relatives abroad. The director of the FBI recently testified before Congress about the FBI's investigation into these "police stations" on U.S. soil: www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi-director-very-concerned-by-chinese-police-stations-us-2022-11-17
Nuclear power is generated in 32 countries. This geo-graphic from Statista shows the number of nuclear power plants in a sampling of these countries along with the average age of the plants: www.statista.com/chart/28805/mean-age-of-nuclear-reactor-fleets-in-selected-countries
This article from Foreign Policy considers the downside of negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine:
"'Give diplomacy a chance.' This phrase gets repeated in almost every conflict, and the war in Ukraine is no exception. ... And why not negotiate? Isn’t a diplomatic solution the best—indeed, the only—option for any kind of long-term settlement between Russia and Ukraine? And if so, what could possibly be the harm in exploring those options? Quite a lot, actually: Despite the way it is commonly portrayed, diplomacy is not intrinsically and always good, nor is it cost-free. ... First, the argument that most wars end with diplomacy and so, therefore, will the war in Ukraine is misleading at best. Some wars—such as the U.S. Civil War and World War II—were fought to the bitter end. Others—like the American Revolution, the Spanish-American War, World War I, or the First Gulf War—were won on the battlefield before the sides headed to the negotiating table. Still others—like the Korean War—ended in an armistice, but only after the sides had fought to a standstill. By contrast, attempts at a diplomatic settlement while the military situation remained fluid—as the United States tried during the Vietnam War and, more recently, in Afghanistan—have ended in disaster. Even if most wars ultimately end in diplomatic settlements, that’s not in lieu of victory. ... Diplomacy can moderate human suffering, but only on the margins. Throughout the conflict, Ukraine and Russia have negotiated prisoner swaps and a deal to allow grain exports. This kind of tactical diplomacy on a narrow issue was certainly welcome news for the captured troops and those parts of the world that depend on Ukrainian food exports. But it’s not at all clear how to ramp up from these relatively small diplomatic victories. Russia, for example, won’t abandon its attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure heading into the winter as it attempts to freeze Ukraine into submission, because that’s one of the few tactics Russia has left. ... There are plenty of reasons to believe that Kyiv will be in an even stronger bargaining position as time passes. The Ukrainians are coming off a string of successes—most recently retaking Kherson—so they have operational momentum. While Ukraine has suffered losses, Western military aid continues to flow in. Despite Russia’s missile strikes on civilian infrastructure, Ukrainian morale remains strong. By contrast, Russia is on the back foot. Its military inventories have been decimated, and it is struggling to acquire alternative supplies. Its mobilization effort prompted as many Russian men to flee the country as were eventually mobilized to fight in Ukraine. ... By contrast, a negotiated settlement—even if it successfully freezes a conflict—comes with a host of moral, operational, and strategic risks. It leaves millions of Ukrainians to suffer under Russian occupation. It gives the Russian military a chance to rebuild, retrain, and restart the war at a later date. Above all, a pause gives time for the diverse international coalition supporting Ukraine to fracture, either on its own accord or because of Russian efforts to drive a wedge into the coalition. Eventually, there will come a time for negotiations. That will be when Russia admits it has lost and wants to end the war. Or it will come when Ukraine says that the restoration of its territory isn’t worth the continued pain of the Russian bombardment. So far, neither scenario has come to pass." foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/22/russia-ukraine-war-negotiation-diplomacy-settlement-peace-ceasefire-armistice-putin/ Systems thinkers understand that system inputs do not operate in isolation but influence each other in complex ways. This article looks at the interlocking "polycrisis," the term used by Columbia University economic historian Adam Tooze, posed by changes in climate, population shifts, the rise of authoritarian politics, instability in global finance, and international conflict: www.nytimes.com/2022/11/13/opinion/coronavirus-ukraine-climate-inflation.html.
Electric vehicles are dependent on a variety of minerals. This article from The Wall Street Journal includes maps that show where cobalt and manganese, as well as lithium and nickel, are mined and refined: www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicles-scarce-parts-supply-chain-11668206037
Yesterday, the world population hit 8 billion according to United Nations estimates. Globally, the population is expected to climb to about 10.4 billion around the turn of the century and then taper off. But these new 2.4 billion people will not be evenly distributed around the planet. This article highlights where there are expected to be concentrated population booms, where the population is expected to decline, where the population is aging rapidly, and what it all means: www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/world-population-8-billion/
The series of geo-graphics in this article from The New York Times show how international trade with Russia has changed since February: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/30/business/economy/russia-trade-ukraine-war.html
Yes, climate change is making some natural disasters worse, but is it also becoming a tidy way of letting governments off the hook for bad planning? The recent floods in Pakistan are a case in point. An international team of researchers analyzed the flooding in Pakistan and found that rainfall in the southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan was "about 75% more intense than it would have been had the climate not warmed by 1.2C." But the report also found "The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability." Although solving climate change will remain out of the purview of any single country, that does not mean governments do not need to address in-country zoning, infrastructure, economic and political issues to mitigate the impacts of climate change. www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-likely-increased-extreme-monsoon-rainfall-flooding-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-pakistan/
This topological map from Visual Capitalist shows the number and percentage of each country's population deemed to be at high risk from once-in-a-century flooding, like the floods that inundated more than one-third of Pakistan earlier this fall, killing more than 1,700 people, destroying buildings and crops, and creating lasting crises in food security, education, and waterborne disease. www.visualcapitalist.com/countries-highest-flood-risk/
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