GEOGRAPHY IN THE NEWS:

After back-to-back hurricanes Irma and Maria sent as many as 250,000 evacuees into Florida's narrow interior in 2017, managers in Orlando and the surrounding area began thinking about how to prepare for future environmental migrants. "As a starting point, the cities need data, some sense of how many people might arrive. But one of the biggest hitches in planning for the future is that so little is known about where and when people will choose to migrate. ... Taking a holistic look at what drives migration is known as 'migration systems theory.' Using that approach, in a study reported in 2017 in Nature Climate Change, [Florida State University professor Matthew] Hauer identified 10 likely 'climate destination' regions in the United States for the estimated 13.1 million people within the country who are expected to be displaced by rising sea levels by 2100. Based on his simulations, the top destinations include Austin, Orlando and Atlanta. Hauer’s study was the first to attempt to anticipate destination regions for U.S. climate migrants. ... But more accurate simulations of widespread climate migration should consider one more dimension of the decision-making process, [Vivek Shandas of Portland State University] says: how people might decide when it’s time to leave. ... That decision will likely be different depending on the type of climate trigger, Shandas says. A growing field of research called event ecology uses computer models to anticipate how an extreme event, such as a hurricane, might ripple through a community, altering population numbers and infrastructure. Those kinds of events — sudden, short-term and extreme, such as Katrina in 2005 — are called 'pulse events.' Migrations spurred by pulse events are fairly easy to simulate. There’s one point of origin, and scientists can make knowledgeable guesses about where people might go from that point of origin based on proximity to other cities, family connections and job availability. Pulse event migrations also tend to occur shortly after the triggering event. But ongoing climate change can boost the frequency of pulse events. For example, climate change is increasing the risk of deadly and destructive wildfires, such as those that struck California in 2017, 2018 and 2019. Each event may trigger some migration, but over time those who stayed behind may also begin to wonder whether they, too, should move to a safer haven. Such slower, longer-term manifestations of climate change, or 'press events,' can be more challenging when it comes to anticipating both when and where people may choose to move. ... And it’s with these events that people’s different risk tolerances most come into play. ... Many people will face the dire choice between individual migration, community-based movement away from the risk, known as 'managed retreat,' or even deciding to find ways to stay in place. ... And there are many other lingering unknowns when it comes to assessing people’s decisions. 'We know very little about how different age groups would respond to different stimuli,' Hauer says." www.sciencenews.org/article/climate-change-migrants-destination-cities-data-orlando