Why do countries relapse into war? Nearly half of all rebellions and civil wars resume within a decade, usually between the same belligerents. A study conducted on behalf of the UN looked at 109 conflicts since 1970 to identify factors that made it more, and less, likely that the peace will hold. Factors that correlate to keeping the peace: democratic traditions and post-conflict elections within a year, a strong national military, and the presence of UN peacekeepers. Factors that correlate to a resumption of war: presence of non-UN foreign troops, no or delayed elections, fewer than 1 member of the national armed forces per 1000 people, and, interestingly, rapid growth in GDP per capita in the first year of peace. www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/03/29/why-do-countries-relapse-into-war-here-are-three-good-predictors
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